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.110111 TimesChapter Eight(whether or not the exchange officially closes early).With 24-There are other minor time routines:hour trading, volume fades in and out, making it difficult toMeats make highs and lows just the openingdetermine just what is a significant time in trading.Both throwof the grains.The price of grain is such a huge compo-off the time routine of the day.nent of meat often it seems you are trading theIn analyzing how to use time, have to do the same thingdirection of grains as much as that of hogs and cattleas you would for any other aspect of trading some future.You(much like the relationship between stocks andhave to determine the primary market.If it is London, you arebonds) unknown factor reaches its peak of greed orgoing to have to look at the same charts and fundamentals thatfear in the heart of the average public meat trader justLondon is looking at.If you want to trade rice (and possibly thebefore grains open.And like most ag futures, the meatsyen), you should attempt to understand how the Japanese tradehave more small traders than average.that market.The big money is made in the big markets by big players2.London markets usually close around 10:00 A.M.CSTthrough big moves.Rotterdam may make a new in soybeanLondon trades more deutsche marks than Chicago andmeal, but if it is not validated by Chicago, the big money won'tNew York combined.It is the dominant world market,follow it.On March 2, 1994, the London market in U.S.bondsthe primary market for currencies, gold, platinum, cop-collapsed along with all the other European bond markets.Butper, cocoa, sugar, and crude oil.(Don't be fooled by theafter a sell-off about half the size of London's, U.S.bonds ralliedfact that New York trades more crude oil contracts thanseveral days before going lower than the London low the fol-London.Brent is still the standard of the world, thankslowing week.The London move was premature.to its proximity to the Middle East.Brent going overMarket wizard and megacurrency trader Kovner saysFirst through the the top of the 1990he has assistants that can help him trade through the night.bull market in crude oil.)Totally absorbed in his work, he sometimes trades all night ifmarket conditions warrant it.After London closes in those markets it dominates, U.S.For the rest of us mere mortals, I have atraders usually do one of two things.If things were dull incially if the size of your account demands any trading be inLondon, they'll be duller in the U.S., so U.S.floor traders starthalf-size contracts that don't trade all night.Use thedrifting off the floor.But if a London-dominated market had lotsLondon closing time of 10:00 A.M.as your close and trade ac-of excitement, U.S.floor traders and commercials have a chancecordingly.If you have enough money to trade full contracts ofto go wild without the interference of London arbitrageurs.JustLondon-dominated and if they have enough volume forlike London often makes extreme quotes in U.S.bonds beforeyour type of trading during London's opening hours on Globexthe main U.S.trading begins, U.S.markets often make extremeor some other night trading system, then use London's hoursquotes in London-dominated markets after 10:00 A.M.for any time routine and be prepared to get up very, very earlyThe advent of 24-hour trading has made the element of timein the morning to catch London's all-important opening.a harder thing to apply in trading.The idea of an opening priceFor all the above reasons and because watching the U.S.is getting strained (although, as I pointed out before, not lost).media work as well London-dominated futures, IAround-the-clock trading has the opposite effect of a snowstormrecommend novice traders stick to futures.Thein New York or Chicago.In a snowstorm, traders try to get"Fib Times" I am giving are only for the trading hours of U.S.everything done in a few hours so they can go home early113112 Chapter Fib Timesmarkets.Even though I am going to give for London-domi- Table 8-1 shows the most prominent Fib Times:nated I recommend you use them with large grains ofsalt in these markets.Table 8-1I first learned about Fib Times from a floor trader.He calledit "the eighths." He divided up the trading day into eight equalFib Interest Stock CrudeTime Gold Copper (Futures) Oil Sugar Cattle Grainsparts.He insisted the market made intraday highs and lows at1/13 9:47A.M.these eighths: the 1/8 time, 1/4 time, the 3/8 time, etc.After1/8 8:06 8:10 8:59 9:21 9:26 9:28 9:34 9:58investigating I found out he was right.These time points in1/5 8:34 8:40 9:20 9:51 9:50 9:45 9:47 10:15the trading day were experiencing intraday highs and lows far2/8 8:52 9:00 9:34 10:11 10:07 9:56 10:04 10:24beyond what you would expect from chance.1/3 9:23 9:33 9:57 10:45 10:33 10:15 10:23 10:45Then I got the bright idea if the one-eighth times were.382 9:41 9:53 10:10 10:49 10:25 10:30 10:56working, what about dividing the day's range by other Fibon-4/8 10:25 10:40 10:43 11:53 11:29 10:52naci numbers (3, 5, 13,.382,.618, They worked as well.I.618 11:15 11:18called them Fib Points (of time) at first.But that name only2/3 1:00 12:22 12:OOP.M.confused technicians who used the same name for certain chart6/8 1:35 12:49 P.M.12:19points.So now I call them Fib Times to prevent confusion.4/5 12:16 12:40 1:54 1:05 12:13 12:30To determine Fib Times, you first determine the amount of7/8 12:43 1:10 12:26 2:26 1:30 12:30 12:47minutes a market trades.For example, crude oil trades 325 min-12/13 1:02 1:29 12:39 2:44 1:45 12:26 12:42 12:58utes a day from (8:45 A.M.to 2:10 P.M.).325 divided by 13 givesa interval for the Fib Time.The firstwould be 25 minutes after the opening at 9:10 A.M.The nextwould be at 9:35 A.M., the next at 10 A.M., etc.There are obvious problems with this table.I didn't wantA crude oil floor trader would use Fib Times in the to put down all the and other Fib Times, although ining way.He's observed that crude has a downward bias.At 9:10 futures like crude, and stocks that have long tradingA.M.he sees that the market has moved up to a resistance point,sessions, they have some significance.Nor did I want to calculatewhich he could determine either by market orders at that pointall the night sessions and 24-hour trading Fib Times.or by some other sort of analysis [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ] |
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